It's almost basketball time!
With a little more than a month until SMU Basketball's season begins, it's time to preview the Mustangs' opponents -- non-conference and AAC.
And that's what we'll be doing over the next month... slow and steady.
Today's opponent is Maryland Baltimore County.
When: Friday, November 10, 7 p.m., ESPN3
You've never heard of Maryland Baltimore County, have you? There's no reason why you should have. Teams from the America East don't come up a lot in conversation in these parts, although SMU has played some teams from that conference in recent years (Albany, New Hampshire).
But UMBC should be on your radar. Why? Because its the best team SMU has faced in a season opener since the Mustangs opened with TCU in 2013.
Should SMU be able to handle the Retrievers? Yes, easily. But from a RPI and KenPom standpoint, UMBC is a beneficial opening opponent... for a buy game.
The Retrievers finished last season with a KenPom of 201. Most "buy" opponents come from the sub-250 group, so the fact the UMBC is fringe top 200 should get your attention. By comparison, that's better than Tulane and just a few spots lower than East Carolina. Both of those teams, though a non-factor in the AAC, have given SMU fans plenty of PTSD since 2014.
Who have they played and who have they beat?
For starters, remember that the America East isn't a pushover. Sure, only one team makes the tournament every year, but there are quality teams in the conference. Like Vermont, who made the tourney last season. Albany, New Hampshire, Stony Brook (sometimes) are all in that group.
The Retrievers sat just outside of that group last season, unable to beat Albany or Vermont (some games were close, however). UMBC did win home games against UNH and Stony Brook.
In non-conference play, UMBC beat a tournament team. The Retrievers beat Mount St. Mary's in December, a 16 seed that didn't play like a 16 seed. I saw The Mount come close to upsetting UT-Arlington in November. UTA was a top 50 KenPom team for most of the year. The Mount was a good team, so there's weight in UMBC beating them if you're open-minded.
The Retrievers return two of their top scorers from last season -- point guard Jarius Lyles and forward Joe Sherburne. Both averaged 19 and 16 points per game respectively. But overall, the entire team can play. The Baltimore area is great for basketball recruiting, and while UMBC isn't drawing elite talent, they are there to scoop up anyone who gets overlooked. Lyles, a DeMatha product, is a perfect example.
Returning so few players from last season, SMU's defense could be challenged in this one. UMBC was 25th, yes, 2-5, in the nation last season in points scored per game (81.1). SMU was down at 151st in that category, though the Mustangs' points allowed (60) made up for it.
I won't get into specific numbers for simplicity's sake, but UMBC's adjusted offensive efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions) was actually quite good for a sub-200 KenPom team. Same goes for adjusted tempo margin (possessions per 40 minutes) -- averaging seven more possessions per game than the Ponies.
UMBC can use that to their advantage. Sure, SMU's defense is the best the Retrievers will play all year, but tempo creates opportunities. SMU prefers to grind the clock on offense while UMBC almost never hears the shot clock buzzer. There are merits of both. But, Jankovich won't be able to control the clock with possession, and that's probably SMU's only disadvantage.
