We're just a few days away from college basketball, and it's time to look at how American Athletic Conference teams stand before the season tips off.
Welcome to The Hilltopics' AAC power rankings, a weekly look at who's trending up and who's trending down in the conference. Be sure to check back for updated rankings every Monday.
To start, here's how hoops beat writer Reece Kelley Graham would rank the AAC before non-conference play begins:
"The Elite"
1. Wichita State (7/8)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 4
Projected record: 23-5
Projected record swing: 27-1 (+4)
Reece Kelley Graham: I'll be honest, I was quite shocked (no pun intended) when the AAC elected to invite Wichita State to the conference. Not that the move didn't make sense -- it was a win-win for both parties. But the speed at which the Shockers were added impressed me and goes to show how much both sides wanted the arranged marriage. Wichita State had to forfeit some of its NCAA Tournament bonus money to jump ship, but in the grand scheme of things, that was a speeding ticket. The Shockers currently have a national championship caliber team and need to face better competition to get there -- better competition than the Missouri Valley could ever provide.
Don't expect the Shockers to be the best team in this conference from here on out. Every program experiences peaks and valleys. But for the time being, the rest of the American (even the other elite teams like Cincinnati and SMU) might have to settle for second. In the long run, that's what's best. This team is going to boost the AAC's profile in a major way.
Depth and experience. The Shockers lost only one starter from a team that made the Round of 32 last year and look to continue right where they left off. Frankly, that team could have made the Elite 8. But a bad seed stuck the Shockers with Kentucky in the second round and... well.
If the Shockers can remain healthy, the conference title race will probably be a no contest. Point guard Landry Shamet and forward Markis McDuffie are both currently dealing with stress fractures in the feet. McDuffie is somewhat replaceable while Shamet isn't, for two reasons:
1) He's just the kind of player you can't replace overnight.
2) If the Shockers have questionable depth at any position, it's the point.
Bank on the Shockers winning the regular season title this season and maybe the next. And while it will be interesting to see how the Shockers react to playing better teams on a weekly basis, everyone else has some catching up to do.
2. Cincinnati (12/13)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 11
Projected record: 23-6
Projected record swing: 24-5 (+1)
RKG: Like Wichita State, Cincinnati will be highly dangerous once again. The Bearcats have maintained a majority of the core that won them 30 games last season. Mick Cronin has a lot to work with and everyone in the AAC will have to deal with the Bearcats' suffocating defense once again. Yippee.
Losing floor general Troy Caupain and sniper Kevin Johnson simultaneously ins't the best scenario, especially for a team that is weaker on the offensive side of the ball and needs perimeter shooting to stay in games against quality opponents.
The addition to the conference that few are talking about this season is Cane Broome out of Sacred Heart, the sixth-most offensively productive player in the nation two seasons ago. If those numbers translate to the AAC, Broome might single-handedly replace Caupain and Johnson. If Jacob Evans and Jarron Cumberland can continue to be solid producers as well, the Bearcats will have quite a juggernaut.
It's the last year of Gary Clark and Kyle Washington, Cincy. Time to do something major.
3. SMU (RV/RV)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 24
Projected record: 23-8
Projected record swing: 27-4 (+4)
RKG: After losing Semi Ojeleye and Sterling Brown to the NBA (let's not forget about Ben Moore either), SMU has a lot of question marks entering this season:
Will the Mustangs be able to make the postseason without their two leading scorers from a 30 win campaign? Can SMU be competitive without a traditional frontcourt? Can SMU succeed with less than ideal depth at any postion?
Haven't we already answered these questions?
These were the same questions that everyone asked when Nic Moore and Markus Kennedy departed for Europe. Nobody knew how SMU would replace them, but somehow, the program won a record number of games the following year. This program has consistently defied preseason expectations for three seasons now -- why should we expect any different?
It would be naive to think this SMU team can win 30 games -- this Mustangs team is younger and maybe even less traditional than last season. Also, the middle of the AAC has caught up with the elites. More games will become battles.
But when you look at the talent Tim Jankovich can use to cover the losses of Ojeleye, Brown and Ben Moore, you'll realize that SMU has the potential to create lots of problems for opponents. This might be the most defensively sound Mustangs team ever.
Louisville/Georgetown transfer Akoy Agau will replace Moore and give the Mustangs much needed size. He's above average defensively and SMU desperately needs him to stay healthy. Jarrey Foster, maybe the most underrated and versatile player in the conference, will slide to the four. These two will provide nice balance to a SMU backcourt that will cause nightmares.
To replace Brown's production, Arkansas transfer and former 4-star recruit Jimmy Whitt will play the point in tandem with Shake Milton, one of the best guards in the country. Senior shooting guard Ben Emelogu has looked fantastic in preseason play and looks to have a breakout final season. Freshman guards Elijah Landrum and Will Douglas will make an impact.
In addition, South Florida transfer Jahmal McMurray will provide a major scoring punch when he becomes eligible to play in December.
It will be difficult to evaluate this team in the early going. SMU might lose every important non-conference game. But the Mustangs look primed to hit their stride by conference play and may surprise everyone once again.
"The Contenders"
4. Central Florida (RV/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 60
Projected record: 18-10
Projected record swing: 18-10 (+0)
RKG: Central Florida had flashes of greatness last season, and SMU fans can thank the Knights for helping them win the conference. That being said, I haven't bought into the UCF hype yet, and that was before Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins announced earlier this week that he would miss the season with a shoulder injury. That's a major loss as Dawkins was expected to replace Matt Williams, who now plays for the Miami Heat. Tank Efianayi is another major departure. B.J. Taylor and A.J. Davis should continue to be quite potent, but with Dawkins, their backcourt would have compared nicely to the AAC's elite. And then there's the Tacko Fall paradox -- the 7-6 center looks to breakout this season, but his stock might be inflated somewhat. It's impossible for UCF to play its best defense when he's on the floor. Playing in Orlando will be a scary proposition, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and call UCF a top team just yet.
5. Temple (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 67
Projected record: 15-13
Projected record swing: 15-13 (+0)
RKG: Make no mistake, Temple is a dark horse for a NCAA bid this season. I would bet the over on KenPom's season projections. Josh Brown is back after sitting out most of last season with an injured Achilles. He's surrounded by highly talented pieces like senior forward Obi Enechionyia, Shizz Alston and Quinton Rose. Dre Perry and J.P. Moorman were the marque pieces of a fantastic recruiting class for head coach Fran Dunphy. Luckily, SMU only has to play Temple once, and the Mustangs get the Owls in Moody.
6. Houston (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 68
Projected record: 18-10
Projected record swing: 19-9 (+1)
RKG: Houston lost Damyean Dotson, a major piece of their offense, to the NBA. The Cougars will miss his uncanny shooting ability. Based on what we saw from Houston last season, the Cougars are probably still the best mid-tier team in the conference. Rob Gray Jr. is some people's pick to win conference player of the year honors. Galen Robinson is another underrated name. Wes VanBeck and Armoni Brooks are other important pieces. Houston also recruited Fabian White, a frontcourt prospect SMU wanted badly. If Houston can improve defensively, Kelvin Sampson might finally get them to the tournament. If not, seventh place is possible.
7. Connecticut (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 69
Projected record: 16-13
Projected record swing: 15-14 (-1)
RKG: Like SMU, UConn has questions to answer in the post and too many answers on the outside. Last season, injuries to Terry Larrier and Alterique Gilbert made the Huskies a non-factor. They're back to join Jalen Adams and Christian Vital, who will shell opponents from the perimeter. But, with Amida Brimah gone and Steven Enoch and Juwan Durham transferring away, the cupboard is bare for head coach Kevin Ollie on the inside. At least SMU landed Agau and can move Foster over -- the Huskies have less options. This team will be hot or cold, and I could see them finishing as high as fourth place.
"The Pretenders"
8. Tulsa (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 82
Projected record: 16-12
Projected record swing: 18-10
RKG: Tulsa seriously underperformed last season after losing James Woodard to graduation. Now the Golden Hurricane must relive that scenario with Pat Birt having departed. Even so, Tulsa can rebound somewhat this season. Sterling Taplin and Junior Etou have another season under their belts and might steal some wins from better teams.
9. Memphis (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 132
Projected record: 15-16
Projected record swing: 14-17 (-1)
RKG: For the sake of the conference, I think we all want Memphis to be good again. That didn't happen last season, and that was when the Tigers had the Lawson brothers to make them look somewhat decent. Now they're gone and Memphis' roster is pretty barren. Jimario Rivers is really the only notable name, and Tubby Smith will need to work miracles to live up to the expectations of his fanbase.
10. Tulane (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 189
Projected record: 12-18
Projected record swing: 11-19 (-1)
RKG: Can I tell you a secret? I really, really wanted to rank Tulane ahead of both Tulsa and Memphis. There's just little statistical basis for me to do so. Cameron Reynolds is an absolute star and will compete for some postseason honors. If the Green Wave had held on to Texas transfer Dylan Osetkowski, they could have made some real noise. I'm actually excited to watch this team.
"The Cellar"
11. East Carolina (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. No. 171
Projected record: 14-15
Projected record swing: 14-15 (+0)
RKG: Kentrell Barkley and B.J. Tyson are a talented duo that gave SMU a scare in the conference tournament last season. But beyond them, there's little to talk about. ECU came close to beating some mid-tier conference opponents last season, but lacked consistency.
12. South Florida (--/--)
Preseason KenPom rating: No. 242
Projected record: 11-20
Projected record swing: 10-21 (-1)
RKG: Academic fraud investigations are never good. December-January was an awful period for USF. They lost top player Jahmal McMurray and head coach Orlando Antigua was fired. This looks to be another long year, but hopefully a youthful bulls team can turn a corner and gain experience for coming seasons.
