SMU basketball in 2016 has gotten to a point where it does not have to rebuild, but reload. The program has been unquestionably shaken up after the loss of key seniors Nic Moore, Jordan Tolbert and Markus Kennedy, along with head coach Larry Brown, but the Mustangs are hardly shy of talent this season.
Shake Milton is expected to lead the offense, stepping in for Moore at point guard and fans should be excited about the possibilities Milton brings to the lineup. He is definitely a different style player than Moore but he will be equally important to the 2016-17 team as Moore was to squads of the past. The 6-foot-4 guard can attack the rim more effectively than Moore did but it will be hard to recapture what Moore brought to the court in terms of vision, leadership and understanding of the offense.
SMU has not been predicted to finish atop the AAC this season but much of this has been due to uncertainty. What will Semi Ojeleye bring to the table in his transfer year after waiting in the wings last season? Can freshman imports from Australia Harry Froling and Tom Wilson make an impact in their rookie seasons?
The front court is brand new aside from Ben Moore, but SMU should have good depth there with him, Froling, Ojeleye, and German freshman Leo Kontopoulos. Moore and Ojeleye will get the brunt of the minutes, leaving the ponies a little undersized there as the two are 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-7 respectively. Froling can provide some length off the bench at 6-foot-11. Chemistry could be an issue among this unit as none of this crew has played any minutes together.
Guard play should stay at a high level for SMU this season with Milton and Sterling Brown at the helm. The two are veterans and will be relied upon to run head coach Tim Jankovich’s moderation of the offense in his first year as the bench boss. Guard play is incredibly important in NCAA basketball and SMU will have an advantage at that spot in most games. Milton started 23 games last year and averaged 10.5 points per game and all indications are that he will only improve. He is also dangerous behind the arc, shooting at a 42.6% clip last season, good enough for third in the AAC. It is also worth noting that when Jankovich led SMU to a 9-0 record to start last season that the Mustangs used the three-ball much more often.
Looking at the SMU schedule, the Ponies should be well within the NCAA tournament mix, as they have been, barring suspension, for the last four years. The 2K Classic at Madison square Garden early in the season should be a good measuring stick with games against Pittsburgh and either Michigan or Marquette. Matchups with USC and Boise State on the road provide a modest but not daunting out of conference schedule. The Ponies also take on TCU and Stanford at Moody Coliseum before conference play starts.
Tough stretches in the schedule come in late January when SMU hosts UConn and Houston in a three-day span. Then in early February, the team travels to Temple before hosting Cincinnati on Feb. 9 and 12.
SMU went 13-5 in conference play and that is attainable again. Most analysts have picked SMU to finish third in the conference behind UConn and Cincinnati, but the Mustangs should compete for the top spot. SMU has played UConn very well the last three years and split with Cincy the last two years. The Mustangs need to mesh quickly if they want to keep momentum going in the post-Larry Brown era, but the talent is there to win. Semi Ojeleye was a top prospect coming out of high school, as were Froling and Wilson. Under new leadership, with new pieces, I expect the same old SMU.
Record prediction: 23-8
