Each week, The HillTopics will chat with a beat writer covering SMU's upcoming opponent. This week, we speak with John Krueger, who covers Stephen F. Austin.
In our "4 & Go" series, The HillTopics will connect with a beat writer for SMU's upcoming opponent and ask four questions about the team. Additionally, the beat writer will provide the "Go" -- a bold prediction, statement or final thought to leave the readers.
This week, SMU opens the season at North Texas. We've reached out to John Krueger, Stephen F. Austin beat writer and sports editor for The Daily Sentinel in Nacogdoches.
SFA hasn't had a winning season since 2014. The Lumberjacks have opened the 2020 season winless. What's the atmosphere like in the Stephen F. Austin locker room going into this week?
The atmosphere for the SFA Lumberjacks heading into SMU week is upbeat, despite their 0-2 record. Coach Colby Carthel and his staff bring an electricity to this squad, and the players have bought into his rebuilding program. The 'Jacks know they played UTEP well in the first week of the season, and this past week, they hung tough with UTSA until the fourth quarter. These are two FBS programs -- teams SFA was not supposed to beat -- and to play them as close as they did heading into the fourth quarter of both games is a positive and brings confidence to the team.
SFA players know this is a rebuilding program. They know this is a season that was, in all likelihood, canceled in August until Carthel and the university pushed to play on, despite the Southland Conference cancelling fall sports. They’re getting better, and they know it. It is a work in progress, with a strong nine-game schedule this fall for a team that is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA sanctions handed down early this summer. The 'Jacks have nothing to lose, and they play like it.
This will be SFA's biggest defensive test of the year. SMU is coming off a 65-point effort against North Texas, and the Mustangs will play their first home game this year. Which Lumberjacks will need monster games on defense?
This is a very young SFA defense, and they will have to receive strong play from their defensive line to get pressure on SMU quarterback Shane Buechele. Defensive linemen like Dennis Osagiede will have to step up their game, and linebackers DayDay Coleman, who led the Lumberjacks with seven tackles in Week 1 vs. UTEP, and Daryan Williams, who picked up 11 stops against UTSA, will have to produce to help contain the strong offense for SMU. Safety Myles Heard, who had a season-high 13 stops against UTSA a week ago, and cornerback Jeremiah Walker, who is coming off a six-tackle effort against UTEP, will lead the secondary.
SFA's defense will have to get off the field on third down. Last week against UTSA, the Roadrunners converted 13 of 19 (68.4%) and recorded scoring drives of 15, nine and eight plays.
SFA's offense has been stuck in neutral, with only 24 points combined in two games. Who are some of the players who will need to step up on offense against SMU's defense?
Offensively against SMU, the 'Jacks have to sustain drives and get their running game into gear if they want to keep the Mustang offense off the field. Last week against UTSA, the 'Jacks converted only 1 of 6 third downs in the first half and 2 of 12 for the game. In the first two contests, SFA has picked up only 156 yards rushing, averaging only 3.2 yards per rush, including 2.1 yards and 59 net rushing yards against UTSA last week.
SFA quarterback Trae Self has completed 35 of 54 passes (64.8%) on the year for 418 yards and will be depended on heavily to get the job done against SMU. His favorite targets are sophomore Xavier Gipson (nine catches, 123 yards, TD) and Larry Jones (six catches, 72 yards), and they’ll have to produce again this week. To keep pressure off the passing game, Da'Leon Ward (26 rushes 92 yards, TD) will have to produce in a big way.
Colby Carthel is in his second year as head coach of the program. What have you seen differently with the program this year compared to the 2019 team?
Colby Carthel knows how to build a winner. He proved it when he took Texas A&M-Commerce to the NCAA Division II National Championship in five years. He did it by building from the ground up, to "win forever," as he says. He’s doing the same thing at SFA. He has had a top-five recruiting class in the FCS in his first two years at SFA. He suited up 68 players for the first two games of the 2020 season, with 47 of them being freshmen and sophomores. Carthel understands this is a process, and the team believes in him.
GO
The SMU game is definitely the biggest challenge for the Lumberjacks this season. It's important that the 'Jacks convert third downs to keep the offense on the field -- and the SMU offense off of it. SFA needs to move the ball some on the ground to take some of the pressure off Self so the Mustang defense doesn't tee off on him in passing situations.
The 'Jacks defense also will have to come up big on third downs so the Mustangs don't have long scoring drives, while stopping big plays from Buechele.
A young team, SFA has to stay away from mistakes if it wants to stay in the game and have a chance against a team that, on paper, obviously outmatches them.
PREDICTION: SMU 45, SFA 17