Rivals.com AAC Roundtable: The 2019 team to falter in 2020?

On Thursday, the representatives from Rivals.com's American Athletic Conference sites discussed the turnaround team of the conference. In today's AAC Roundtable, the representatives speak about the team that could see the biggest dropoff from last year.

The answers vary, but a couple of teams stand out and will be on watch after excellent 2019 seasons.

Here are the following individuals who have agreed to participate for today's question (all names are in alphabetical order):

Kyle Gauss, assistant editor, OwlScoop.com (Temple)

Brandon Helwig, publisher, UCFSports.com (UCF)

Mike James, publisher, TheMidReport.com (Navy)

Mark Lindsay, publisher, PirateIllustrated.com (East Carolina)

Ben McCool, beat writer, BullsInsider.com (USF)

Damon Sayles, managing editor, The HillTopics (SMU)

Isaac Simpson, beat writer, TigerSportReport.com (Memphis)

Guerry Smith, publisher, The Wave Report (Tulane)

Jason Stamm, managing editor, BearcatReport.com (Cincinnati)

QUESTION OF THE DAY: JULY 24

Which team may be in the most danger of a meltdown, compared to 2019 results?

GAUSS: For me, it's SMU. The Mustangs do return a lot on offense, minus the notable absence of James Proche, and Shane Buechele has a chance to play his way into a pretty high NFL draft selection. I love Reggie Roberson Jr. and feel like he'll step up a lot in Proche's absence. But the Mustangs graduated their two best running backs and also lost a lot on defense, highlighted by the graduation of Patrick Nelson, who had an absolute monster year last season. It'll be hard for SMU to find somebody to replace his 12 sacks and 17.5 tackles for a loss. Delontae Scott, who had 17 TFL and nine sacks last season, is also gone and will be sorely missed.

The offense that returns a lot from a 41.8 points-per-game season? It's now under new command after Rhett Lashlee went to Miami. Lashlee's replacement, Garrett Riley, will be in his first year as an offensive coordinator and will most likely experience a learning curve. With the level of talent returning to the offense, I don't expect SMU to all of a sudden return to a below .500 team, but I don't expect the Mustangs to come anywhere close to their 2019 level of success.

I also considered Navy for this, as the Midshipmen lost a lot on the offensive line and Malcolm Perry graduated. In the end, I realized I probably shouldn't bet against Ken Niumatalolo.

HELWIG: This is a really interesting question. Football wise, I'm going with Memphis. Though new head coach Ryan Silverfield certainly knows the landscape as a promotion from Mike Norvell's staff, their 2020 schedule could be the most brutal among frontrunners. They'll have a much tougher road if they want to repeat, as the Tigers are scheduled to play all the better teams in the league -- including road trips to SMU, Cincinnati, Navy and Tulane.

If we're talking fan base, UCF. After riding the perfect regular season streak through 2017 and 2018, many fans believe UCF isn't allowed to lose a game, ever.

JAMES: Conventional wisdom here would be Navy; following up an 11-win season without a generational talent at quarterback is a lot to ask. With their defense, though, Navy's floor is higher than people believe. I think that in 2020, Tulane is walking a bit of a fine line. They finished last season losing five of their last seven games. This year, they'll have to replace quarterback Justin McMillan with (most likely) Keon Howard, a grad transfer who had an up-and-down career at Southern Miss.

Replacing wide receiver Darnell Mooney is another tall task, and with the heartbreaking injury to Corey Dauphine, the Green Wave's big-play ability took a major hit. Will they be able to keep up in a mile-a-minute conference like the American? The answer to that will depend on a lot of unproven pieces.

LINDSAY: With the departure of Mike Norvell to Florida State, it will be hard to determine what will happen with the Tigers. They play a solid out-of-conference slate and have to face many of the best teams in the AAC, as well. Whether things go the way they did for the Tigers when Mike Norvell replaced Justin Fuente remains to be seen.

McCOOL: With the departure of Mike Norvell to Florida State, it will be hard to determine what will happen with the Memphis Tigers. They play a solid out-of-conference slate and have to face many of the best teams in the AAC, as well. Whether things go the way they did for the Tigers when Mike Norvell replaced Justin Fuente remains to be seen.

SAYLES: Tough question, but I'm respectfully going to go with Navy. By "respectfully," I mean I don't expect the Midshipmen to have the ultimate meltdown; however, I think it will be extremely tough for them to duplicate the season it had last year. Malcolm Perry was a next-level talent at quarterback, one who definitely deserved to be named the AAC Offensive Player of the Year.

With Perry gone and several offensive linemen out of eligibility, Navy's offense will look different. I think Navy will still have a solid season, but it'll be hard to get 11 wins again.

SIMPSON: Amongst the better teams in the league last season, I think Temple could drop the farthest. They suffered significant losses on the defensive end due to graduation and the transfer of Quincy Roche. On the offensive end, they lose offensive line captain Matt Hennessy, who was a Rimington finalist last season. I foresee issues protecting senior quarterback Anthony Russo, which could prevent him from taking full advantage of solid weapons at the skill positions. I would put them on the bubble when it comes to bowl eligibility this season.

SMITH: Meltdown may be too strong a term, but Navy cannot help but miss Malcolm Perry, who rushed for 2,017 yards and likely would have led the Midshipmen to the AAC title if he had not hurt his shoulder in the first half of the pivotal game at Memphis. He was a sensational option quarterback, and you only have to go back to 2018's 3-10 record to find out what happens when Navy has uncertainty at quarterback. Ken Niumatalolo is too good a coach to suffer a repeat of that debacle, but the Middies will fall far short of last year's 11 victories.

STAMM: I'm curious to see how Memphis answers last season's dream run to a conference title and the Cotton Bowl. A lot has changed since then, with lost offensive firepower and the loss of coach Mike Norvell, who left for Florida State. I think the Tigers still have enough pieces to avoid a losing season, but it's hard to see them getting to the same level as last season.

DID YOU MISS PART OF THE ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION?

Sunday, July 19: Favorite to win the AAC

Monday, July 20: Dark horse of the year

Tuesday, July 21: Offensive Player of the Year

Wednesday, July 22: Defensive Player of the Year

Thursday, July 23: 2020 turnaround team